Does recruiting matter?

Is the sky blue? Will I have to pay taxes this year? Has Pamela Anderson been surgically altered? The obvious answer to this question is of course recruiting matters. In the past few years, the recruiting business has exploded to a multi-million dollar per year business. So, as an experiment, I’ve decided to take a look back at the recruiting business since 2003. I’ve taken the top 25 classes per year. The top class gets 25 points. The 25th best class gets 1 point. Anyway, I’ve added up what all of the schools on the list have done. I’m hoping to identify how accurate these recruiting classes are, who has “apparently” recruited the best, who’s been hurt the most by 1-and-done players, and who some of the best players that were ignored by recruiting services and, more importantly, who has an eye for them. Over the next three days, I’m going to give you the top 30 teams according to simply how well rivals.com has rated them (this has nothing to do with actual performance in college). My rooting interest (the Minnesota Golden Gophers) are unfortunately at #58 on the list and without the two players they are missing because of suspensions this year, they wouldn’t even be that. Without further adou, here is the top 30:

#30 – Maryland Terapins
Record over last six years – 123-76
Top Recruits - Mike Jones (#20 – 2003)
Recruiting Flops - none
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - DJ Strawberry, Greivis Vasquez, Landon Milbourne, James Gist, Sean Mosley
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - none

They’ve been good, but not great over the past six years. I’m not naïve enough to think that 123 wins in the ACC is equal to probably about 140-145 wins in a lesser conference. Gary Williams, who finally got his national championship on the back of Steve Blake and Juan Dixon in the early part of the decade, continues to put competitive teams on the floor despite not having the recruiting classes of fellow ACC conference teams Duke, NC, or even Georgia Tech.

#29 – Georgetown
Record over last six years – 129-65
Top Recruits - Greg Monroe (#8 - 2008), Austin Freeman (#15 – 2007), DeJuan Summers (#9 – 2006) Recruiting Flops - no big ones that I can see
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Jeff Green (3-star – 2004), Roy Hibbert (3-star – 2004)
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - none that I can see…

The highlight of the last six years was obviously the 2006-07 Final Four run for the Hoyas team that featured three future pros in the starting lineup (DeJuan Summers, Roy Hibbert, and Jeff Green) along with two sons of prominent former NBA players (Patrick Ewing Jr and Jeremiah Rivers).

#28 – LSU Tigers
Record over last six years –118-71
Top Recruits - Glen Davis (#13 – 2004), Tasmin Mitchell (#20 – 2005), Anthony Randolph (#12 – 2007)
Recruiting Flops - Magnum Rolle (#18 – 2005)
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Tyrus Thomas, Marcus Thornton, Brandon Bass
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Tyrus Thomas, Anthony Randolph

The 2005-06 team the freshman combination of Big Baby Glen Davis and Tyrus Thomas was the most memorable season for LSU fans. Of their three All-SEC selections in the 2000s, only Big Baby was highly recruited. Neither Brandon Bass nor Marcus Thornton were high on the recruiting lists nor was future lottery pick Tyrus Thomas.

#27 – Tennesse Volunteers
Record over last six years – 112-71
Top Recruits - Scotty Hopson (#5 – 2008)
Recruiting Flops - Duke Crews (#26 – 2006), Ramar Smith(#20 – 2006)
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Chris Lofton, JaJuan Smith
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - none that I can see

The inclusion of Tennessee on this list somewhat surprises me. Bruce Pearl seems like a pretty good coach, but other than Chris Lofton, the players have seemed for the most part forgettable on the national level. Looking at how well they’ve supposedly recruited, I’d say they’ve been a bit disappointing with only five NCAA tournament wins since Pearl took over. Still, they’re much better off than they were before the Bruce Pearl era.

#26 – Mississippi State
Record over last six years – 131-68
Top Recruits - Renardo Sidney (#16 – 2009) (although he may never suit up due to eligibility issues), Jamont Gordon (#16 – 2005)
Recruiting Flops - Class of 2005 minus Jamont Gordon
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Jarvis Varnado
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Monta Ellis (never made it to campus)

Other than Jarvis Varnado’s shot-blocking ability, there isn’t too much too get excited about regarding Bulldog basketball. Three first round tournament wins is about all they have to show. Of course, had Monta Ellis came to school there, it may have been a different story. When you look at their 2005 recruiting class, it’s quite depressing for fans of Mississippi State (none of which, coincidentally, live in Minnesota). They recruiting two five star players (Monta Ellis & Jamont Gordon), three four star players (twins Richard and Reginald Delk and Vernon Goodridge). Three years later, the Delks and Goodridge had transferred after disappointing careers and Ellis was obviously playing for the Golden State Warriors.

#25 – Oklahoma State
Record over last six years – 137-68
Top Recruits - Byron Eaton (#17 – 2005), JamesOn Curry (just google the name to find out the recruiting story), Obi Muonelo (#19 – 2006)
Recruiting Flops - Keith Brumbaugh (#14 – 2005), Roderick Fleming
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - James Anderson
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Gerald Green (#1 – 2005) – never made it to campus

Looking at their 2005 recruiting class, it’s kind of sad what happened. Gerald Green went to the NBA where he flamed out pretty quick. Keith Brumbaugh went to the NBA, then pulled his name out, but was then ruled ineligible after two separate incidents (shoplifting and a questionable ACT score). Roderick Fleming was buried on the bench but went on to average almost 17 points a game after transferring to Hawaii.

#24 – Kansas State Wildcats
Record over last six years – 112-75
Top Recruits - Michael Beasley (#1 – 2007), Bill Walker (#7 – 2007)
Recruiting Flops - Wally Judge – so far (#18 – 2009), Jason Bennett (#30 – 2006)
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Jacob Pullen
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Michael Beasley, Bill Walker, Jason Bennett

The year of Beasley and Walker was supposed to mean big things. Unfortunately, it just meant one above average season (21-12) with a blowout loss to a tough Wisconsin team in the second round. If nothing else, it gave me a reason to watch Big 12 basketball for a season after Durant left.

#23 – Georgia Tech Yellowjackets
Record over last six years – 106-87
Top Recruits - Javaris Crittendon (#7 – 2006), Thaddeus Young (#5 – 2006), Derrick Favors (#3 – 2009)
Recruiting Flops - none
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Anthony Morrow, Gani Lawal
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Thaddeus Young, Javaris Crittendon

Wow… talk about getting killed by players leaving early. Even the one year that Young and Crittendon (who is now famous for something other than his basketball ability) stuck around, the Yellowjackets were only 20-12 with a one-and-done in the NCAA tournament. I wouldn’t guess that Favors is going to stick around after this year. Morrow and Lawal did develop into being studs, though. As a whole, though, this has to be one of the more disappointing teams based on how well they supposedly recruited.

#22 – Syracuse Orangemen (Note: they will always be the Orangemen to me)
Record over last six years – 146-62
Top Recruits - Paul Harris (#12 – 2006), Donte Green (#9 – 2007), Johnny Flynn (#22 – 2009)
Recruiting Flops - none
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Wesley Johnson (only a two-star when recruited to Iowa State), Eric Devendorf, Demetris Nichols
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - Donte Green

Looking at Syracuse, they’ve had a weird mix of players with a short career (Carmelo, Johnny Flynn, Donte Green, and likely Wesley Johnson) with guys like Gerry McNamara, Eric Devendorf, and Paul Harris who’ve stuck around for a few years and contributed. Looking at the list of teams that are successful, it seems to be a good plan. A few teams have the high level stars, but they don’t stick around to develop. Other teams have a bunch of “three” and “four” star players, but they don’t have the guy that can dominate. Teams that are consistently good seem to have a good mixture of both.

#21 – Wake Forest Deamon Deacons
Record over last six years –
Top Recruits - Chris Paul (#14 – 2003), Al-Farouq Aminu (#7 – 2008)
Recruiting Flops - Tony Woods (#20 – 2008), Ty Walker (#17 – 2008)
Best Below-the-Radar Recruits - Jeff Teague, James Johnson
Program Killing One-and-Done Players - none, really

The 2009 Deacons should’ve been a Final Four type team. They had three future NBA first rounders in Teague, Johnson, and Aminu. They also had nice balance with a point guard, wing, and inside guy as their top three players. Woods and Walker not really developing the way the experts thought they would definitely affected what kind of team they had over the past two years.